Welcome to the "Prez" Power Poll!

Who will win the 2008 Presidential nominations for the Republican and Democratic Party?

And now, without further ado (actually, without any ado), your Prez Power Poll (PPP) for Friday, July 30 (2005). There are 30 months until the Iowa Caucuses!

(Note: Please ignore the Momentum meter for now, we are working on a few technical issues relating to it - right now it is meaningless).

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"Prez" Power Poll (PPP): Republican Party
Rank Candidate Chance of winning new! “Political "Mo" Meter”
1 John McCain [McCain] 17 % -- 5:1 WAY
2 George Allen [Allen] 12 % -- 7 :1
3 Jeb Bush [McCain] 10 % -- 9:1 WAY
4 Rick Santorum [Allen] 7 % -- 13 :1
5 Mitt Romney ......[Romney] 6 % -- 24:1 neutral
6 Condoleeza Rice [Rice] 5 % -- 19:1 neutral
7 Rudolph Giuliani [Giuliani] 4 % -- 19:1
William Frist .. [Frist] 4 % -- 24:1
9 Sam Brownback [Brownback] 1 % -- 100:1
10 Newt Gingrich ....[Gingrich] 0.5 % -- 200:1 N/A
11 Mike Pence ........[Pence] 0.5 % -- 200:1 N/A
12 Dick Cheney .......[Cheney] 0.4 % -- 250:1 N/A
N/A FIELD ........ [FIELD] 33% -- 2:1 N/A

"FIELD" represents the estimated chance that someone not in this group will win the nomination.

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"Prez" Power Poll (PPP): Republican Party
Rank Candidate Chance of winning new! “Political "Mo" Meter”
1 Hillary Clinton .. [Clinton] 40 % -- 3:2 WAY
2 John Kerry .... [Kerry] 10 % -- 9 :1
3 John Edwards ... [Edwards] 9 % -- 10:1 WAY
4 Joseph Biden [Biden] 6 % -- 15 :1
5 Wesley Clark ...[Clark] 5 % -- 20:1 neutral
6 Al Gore .....[Gore] 4 % -- 24:1 neutral
7 Evan Bayh ... [Bayh] 2 % -- 50:1 neutral
8 Tom Vilsack [Vilsack] 1 % -- 100:1
Russ Feingold .. [Feingold] 1 % -- 100:1
10 Bill Richardson [Richardson] 1 % -- 100:1
11 Howard Dean ....[Dean] 0.5 % -- 200:1 N/A
12 Mark Warner .....[Warner] 0.5 % -- 200:1 N/A
13 Brian Schweitzer ...[schweitzer] 0.2 % -- 500:1 N/A
14 Barrack Obama [Obama] 0.2 % -- 500:1 N/A
N/A FIELD ........ [FIELD] 20% -- 4:1 N/A

"FIELD" represents the estimated chance that someone not in this group will win the nomination.

Comments for 8/23/05

Whoops. Sorry about the false start. We're back up now, after a wacky couple of weeks for the webmaster.

First, I want to give a shoutout to a site that I have found that does an incredible job of compiling articles and information about the 2008 race. Check it out: www.ovaloffice2008.com

Anyway, the Democratic race's rankings are up. Unfortunately, the Mo-Meter is still useless. More to come soon.

Comments for 8/1/05

We're back.

A lot of our loyal fans criticized the site for not adapting to the end of the primary season and the beginning of Kerry vs. Bush contest. Simply put, there were too many sites already out there handicapping the race from a more "expert" perspective - we didn't really feel the need to throw our two cents into the bucket.

Well, here we are now, just having entered the second half of 2005. It'll be two and half years before the common man pays a lick of attention to the Presidential Primaries.

But you're not here because you are a "common man." You're here because you are one of us: a political junkie. Much like the world-class athlete or the diehard sports fan, for us, there is no "off-season."

With that said, what can you expect from the new PrezPoll? In a word, or two words if you can spell correctly, a lot. We're talking about at-least-weekly updates, added functionality to the "Mo" meter, candidate bios, and, perhaps most exciting, a forum/message board for you to sound off about how full of baloney we are.

In the meantime, while this site is in the infancy of it's rebirth, you'll see it put back together by piecemeal. This week, I'm going to be reconstructing the Democratic PrezPoll. After finishing that, I will be posting a bit of an analysis about the past month's political events and how they might affect 2008. As you'd probably expect, I'll be sure to address the upcoming battle over John Roberts' nomination to the Supreme Court, as well as Senator Bill Frist's breaking with President Bush in regards to Stem-Cell Research.

For now, I'll be leaving our updates from the 2004 Democratic primary on the site - soon, they'll be moved to the site archive.

Feel free to email me with your questions and comments: BLogan /at\ Gmail.com. Stay tuned for more.

Comments for 1/30/04

As Bill Schneider said on CNN a few nights ago, this race is most certainly NOT over. Lieberman could stay alive by taking Delaware, Clark could take Arizona and Oklahoma, Edwards could take South Carolina, and Dean could steal delegates with second and third place finishes Tuesday, and perhaps a win next week in delegate-heavy Michigan.

There's no question John Kerry is in great shape, both in terms of finances and in terms of momentum. But considering this race a done deal would be a big mistake, especially with the power of the news media in derailing a candidate. Look for heavy criticism of Kerry these next few weeks, coming from three directions: The Bush Administration, the story-hungry news media, and from his fellow Democratic contenders. If Kerry can weather these blows, he's the winner, but that's far from certain.

A lot of people are predicting this to be a Kerry-Edwards race in a few weeks, and that Kerry-Edwards will be the presidential ticket. Dean is indeed in dire straights right now, having fired Joe Trippi, and pulling ads in all seven "Super Tuesday" primary states. But don't underestimate a resurgence of the movement he helped inspire. And don't count out General Wesley Clark, as his message and background should appeal strongly to Midwestern and Southern voters in these upcoming primaries. Both candidates, however, need to make their move very soon, or they will each run out of money, but, more importantly, opportunities to win delegates.

Comments for 1/22/03

In a nutshell: Gephardt is out after a uber-dissapointing finish in Iowa. Dean was also a huge dissapointment with a distant third place finish, but an overly impassioned post-caucus speech was what really left the pundits talking. The whole country seems to be coming down on the former Vermont governor, and in a presidential race in which perception so often breeds reality, we may be soon sticking a fork in Howard Dean.

Wesley Clark was the third candidate who took a hit in Iowa, as John Kerry's success takes some wind out of Clark's sails (both candidates share a military background, and therefore may siphon respective voters). Kerry has a tidal wave of momentum coming into New Hampshire, but John Edwards has gotten back into this race in a big way by finishing second. If Edwards can somehow manage a top three New Hampshire finish, he will be very formidable going into New Hampshire. Otherwise, Kerry may run away with the nomination, unless Clark or Dean rebounds. More to come tomorrow. Evening update: Kerry currently leads Dean by 10 points in NH in one poll (31-21, with Clark at 16 and Edwards at 7).

Comments for 1/19/03

1. Sen. John Kerry (MA) has been on an absolute tear this week. He has moved from a weak third to a strong second in New Hampshire, even though he has been spending almost all of his time campaigning in Iowa, where he has surged to and retained a small edge in what amounts to a statistical four-way tie. His infrastructure is strong in New Hamsphire, and we are expecting a lot of undecideds there to break towards Kerry or Clark, so he should have a good chance at winning NH. Winning NH and Iowa would, obviously, make him the clear frontrunner in this race.

2. Gov. Howard Dean (VT) is fading fast. Electability seems to be the most important issue to the undecided voters who are finally choosing their candidate, and Dean to most undecideds flunks that test. Iowa has gone from a shoe-in to perhaps a longshot with the way the Caucuses there are designed; supporters of third and fourth place candidates in some districts, it would seem, would be more likely to yield their votes to candidates other than the bombastic governor. New Hamphshire, meanwhile, has become a three-way race, with Clark and Kerry challenging Dean. There is good news, however: I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by switching to Geico.

3. (Retired) Gen. Wesley Clark has seen his rising poll numbers plateau in New Hampshire. His supporters are very afraid of the unexpected rise of Kerry. Still, endorsements by populist Michael Moore and veteran and failed Democratic nominee George McGovern provide just a little more legitimacy to the General's campaign, and events in the Granite State have been drawing large crowds. The big question is, is a second place finish, especially if it is to Kerry, enough to keep Clark a viable contender?

4. Sen. John Edwards (NC) continues his rise into the top four, with an impressive week in Iowa. Voters continue to laud his optimism and positive campaign. Can he squeeze out a top 3 finish in New Hampshire, though? No Democrat OR Republican has ever won the nomination without a top 3 New Hampshire finish.

5. Congressman Richard Gephardt (MO) has plateaued in Iowa, and shows no real movement in New Hampshire. Things are not looking good for the House's minority leader. Speaking of which, if things don't start changing soon, Gephardt may be looking to return to his old job fulltime in the next few weeks.

6. Sen. Joseph Lieberman (CT) needs to finish highly in New Hampshire to have a chance, as we've said. And with just 7% of the vote there...we'll, don't hold your breath, those of you excited about the prospect of a President Lieberman.

7. Reverend Al Sharpton finished second, as expected, in DC, and has been out of the limelight, for the most part. Debates are where the Reverend shines, anyway.

8. Congressman Dennis Kucinich (OH) Two things: his supporters (seen most recently outside a Wesley Clark rally in New Hampshire) are by far the best dancers of the bunch. Also, he's reportedly polling ahead of LaRouche in NH.

Comments for 1/14/03 1. Gov. Howard Dean (VT) In a 4 way tie in unpredictable Iowa, and hearing Clark's foosteps in New Hampshire. Still the favorite, but not by much in this wide-open race.

2. (Retired) Gen. Wesley Clark Is steamrolling from 4th in New Hampshire to a strong second...Dean should be wary in NH. Also leads Arizona. People are digging the sweaters.

3. Sen. John Kerry (MA) What a wild ride for John Kerry. This time a year ago he was the Democratic frontrunner, and this time a month ago his campaign was dead in the water. Now, Kerry has been picking up several significant endorsements from newspapers and public officials, reviving his campaign. But, more importantly, Kerry himself seems to be revived, showing a warmth and vigor conspicuously absent from his first 12 months on the campaign trail. Kerry and John Edwards are now definite "sleeper" candidates in this primary.

4. Congressman Richard Gephardt (MO) I'd consider him the favorite now in Iowa, with a four way tie statistically in polling. Labor organizations are famous for bringing out the vote, and these have been his strength. 5. Sen. John Edwards (NC) It was surprising the positive message of the good-looking Senator from North Carolina hadn't caught on earlier, but it appears the Edwards campaign has finally found some footing in Iowa. In addition to securing the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, Edwards may be on the way to becoming a viable candidate for primary voters looking to oust the incumbent Bush with his charm and geographical point of origin. But don't rely on him to carry his home state of North Carolina: many voters there hate him.

6. Sen. Joseph Lieberman (CT) Lieberman's star appears to be fading as Clark's is rising. Some voters see him as too much like the current president, while others are averse to his oft negative campaigning in the primary. Because Lieberman is not participating in Iowa, a top three finish in New Hampshire is an absolute must to retain any chance to win the nomination, and that appears to be a longshot at best.

7. Reverend Al Sharpton Although some voters lauded his racially charged attacks on frontrunner Howard Dean this week, more questions have emerged in Iowa with Sharpton than have been answered. Where is his campaign money disappearing to? And where has he been over the last several weeks? Perhaps he's in the same secure, undisclosed location as Vice President Cheney, as he has hardly been seen in Iowa or New Hampshire. A solid finish in Washington DC's nonbinding primary may have boosted his campaign, however.

8. Congressman Dennis Kucinich (OH) His support is fading as reality of the primaries draw closer. Many voters admire his idealism, but are hesitant to support a candidate deemed to be such an unlikely nominee. Perception often becomes a self-fulfilling reality.

9. Ambassador Carol Moseley-Braun Has certainly emerged as the most diplomatic of the candidates (perhaps apprpropriate for a former Ambassador?), encouraging party unity and defending Dean from attacks by Reverend Al Sharpton. Policy remains somewhat undefined in some areas, but she does appear to have attracted a following on the campaign trail. It looks highly doubtful, however, that this following is going to become large enough to help Moseley-Braun become competitive with the top-tier of candidates. Dropped out of Presidential Race on January 14. We'll miss you, Carol.

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The preceding is an attempt to predict the winner of the 2004 presidential nominee for both the Republican and Democratic parties. Of course, since George W Bush is currently running unchallenged in his party's primary, the 0current focus is on the Democratic race.

You are probably wondering how my rankings and odds come into existence. The answer is simple: they are educated guesses. Our "expert" panel of political prognosticators makes these figures based on a combination of polls of primary voters, public perception, events that occur on the campaign trail, and sometimes on a simple hunch we have. The hope is that they are as objective as is humanly possible. Accuracy, however, is left for you to judge.

Each Wednesday and Saturday (twice weekly), this Poll is updated. Often it will be updated more frequently than twice a week, especially when major events occur that affect the primary process.

Feel free to send your comments or complaints (or votes!) to webmaster@prezpoll.itgo.com . They are read AND appreciated! [webmaster's note: please don't tell me how poorly this site is done, unless you are offering do it better yourself. I'm just plain bad at working with HTML - sorry folks]